Crude Oil Price Forecasting – ARIMA Model Approach

Abstract

The price of crude oil forecasting has become more significant in the trade of day-to-day services of energy. A good predicting model increases the efficiency of producers, and consumers, and their prices are also playing a vital role in the investment process of financial trade. To analyze and forecast time series, a well-known ARIMA model is used in this paper to model month-ahead spot prices. The proposed model has been applied a series of times which consists of the monthly prices of crude oil from the Information of the U.S. Energy Administration.

Index Terms:  Crude oil, Box-Jenkins Methodology, MAPE, and Forecasting.